Overnight, price action turned choppy, culminating in a obvious stop run that cleared out liquidity beneath yesterdays low this morning.

What’s Next?

• As long as 1.34500 holds, we could see a relief bounce into the 1.35000–1.35200 zone, where sellers are likely to re-emerge.

• A clean break back below 1.34500 would expose 1.34000 and it's demand zone as the next major downside target.

• Watch for a large bullish or bearish candle to form above 0.14% - that'll be our short term support/resistance level and reference point for the rest of the day.

For now, momentum remains fragile, and today’s session will likely determine whether buyers can defend the 1.34500 level or whether the pair extends lower into the new week.

Don't forget: 

1. Use my big candle alert indicator to see optimal entry - it'll draw a line from the bull candle low once complete. 

2. Enter long as soon as candle closes with stop below low - if long already, move stops up to the bull candle low.

3. Watch the next few candles - the further and faster price declines into the candle, the more likely the low will break. 

4. Expect retracement/profit taking if price moves into supply (should start near the 1.35500 psycholgoical level. 

Will keep you guys posted. 

Liam... 

1. Psychological Level Resistance – The 0.64000 level is a big round number that naturally attracts profit-taking and order clustering, making it a natural pause point.

2. Previous Supply Zones – Historical price action shows that this area has acted as a minor supply zone, where sellers previously stepped in, adding to the likelihood of a temporary stall.

3. Liquidity and Week-End Dynamics – As the market approached the weekend, liquidity thinned. Traders often close positions, reducing momentum and causing price to consolidate near key levels.

4. FOMC-Fueled Volatility – The spike following the FOMC created an extended move in a short period. Markets often retrace a portion of these moves to “digest” the volatility before continuing.

Implication for Monday:

Given these factors, we can expect Monday’s retracement to find support near prior demand zones or psychological levels below 0.64000, potentially around 0.63600–0.63750, before resuming the broader trend.

It automatically draws a line:

• At the low of bullish candles

• At the high of bearish candles

These lines are triggered whenever a candle exceeds a set percentage of the market range.

Even though these aren’t engulfing candles, the lines hold up remarkably well, with the market rarely breaching them unless price reaches extreme levels. This is because the probability of price breaking the low or high of large candles above a certain threshold is extremely small.

(Check out the Statistical Insights section to see the exact probabilities and understand why this works so reliably.)

As such, it makes a powerful reference tool for identifying short-term support and resistance zones, planning entries, and managing risk.

Bullish and bearish streaks—consecutive up or down candles—are more than just random price movements. When studied carefully, they reveal probabilities that can help traders anticipate future price action.

Here’s how I approach them:

1. Defining a Streak

   • A bullish streak occurs when the market closes higher for consecutive periods (e.g., 3 candles in a row).

   • A bearish streak is the opposite—consecutive lower closes.

   • Counting streaks across different timeframes (1H, 4H, daily) can reveal patterns that are often overlooked by most traders.

2. Probability Insight

   • Not all streaks continue indefinitely. For example, a 4-candle bullish streak on EUR/USD might have historically only a 15% chance of extending to 5 candles.

   • Tracking these probabilities allows you to anticipate potential reversals or the continuation of momentum.

3. Combining with Context

   • Streak probabilities become much more powerful when combined with:

     • Key support/resistance zones

     • Supply and demand areas

     • Session behavior (London vs New York)

   • For example, a bearish streak reaching a major demand zone has a higher probability of reversing than continuing blindly.

4. Practical Applications

   • Entry Timing: Use streak analysis to enter trades near the likely end of a streak or during continuation setups.

   • Risk Management: Avoid chasing streaks when probabilities suggest a reversal is imminent.

   • Daily Bias: Understand market sentiment by observing how streaks develop across sessions.

Example: If EUR/USD has formed a 5-candle bearish streak on the daily chart, and the last candle is approaching a key demand zone, the probability of a reversal increases significantly. This can guide intraday entries or longer-term bias.

(More to come, stay tuned!)

Check it out....

Now we have major engulf on daily chart, suggesting this is was a key inflection point for USD - i.e, USD should decline further from here. 

Expect a continuation of Friday's profit taking tomorrow with key players positioning themselves short.

Watch for a move above 147.000 psyche level tomorrow (liquidity point) and potentially to 147.500 before shorts take hold again.

Here’s what you can do in this thread:

• Post your latest charts, setups, and trade plans

• Share thoughts on ECB, Fed, and macro news impacting EUR/USD

• Highlight key support/resistance levels or candle patterns you’re watching

• Discuss both short-term and long-term price action

I’ll be posting my own analysis and setups when possible to keep the discussion flowing.

👉 Let’s make this the go-to spot for everything EUR/USD. Drop your charts and thoughts below!

Use this thread to:

• Post your technical setups and key levels

• Discuss news & fundamentals moving the pound

• Share your intraday or swing trade plans

• Compare notes on volatility during London & NY sessions

I’ll jump in with my own analysis and comments when I can.

(UK traders — your insights are especially welcome! 🇬🇧)

👉 What’s everyone seeing on Cable today? Drop your thoughts below!