Understanding the
Probability Statistics
A plain-English guide to every statistic on the daily analysis page — what it means, how to read it, and exactly how to use it when you're about to place a trade.
What are these statistics for?
Supply and demand zones show you where price is likely to react. But they don't tell you the odds. That's what these statistics are for.
Every number on the daily analysis page comes from backtesting 24 years of EUR/USD daily and hourly candle data — 6,420 daily closes in total. The statistics are grouped into five categories, each answering a different question a trader asks before entering a trade.
How to use this guide
Each section below explains one statistic group. Read the definition, look at the chart example, then check the "how to apply it" section. The last section shows you how to stack them together.
Daily close probability
Will today close bullish or bearish?
Open-close range
How far will price travel today?
Streak end probabilities
When does a run of closes reverse?
High / low break odds
Will today break yesterday's high or low?
Distance from open
How does pip distance from open affect odds?
Daily Close Probability
EUR/USD · 6,420 candles · Jan 1999 – Jan 2023
What it measures
This is the simplest of the five statistics. It counts how many of the 6,420 EUR/USD daily candles closed bullish (above their open) versus bearish (below their open) — then expresses that as a percentage.
Bullish close
50.7%
3,243 candles
Bearish close
49.2%
3,146 candles
The key insight: near-perfect 50/50
EUR/USD has no meaningful directional bias on any given day. You cannot use this stat alone to decide direction. Its value is as a baseline — it tells you the market gives you no edge from random selection. All your edge must come from zones, session timing, and structure.
How to apply it
- 1
Use it as a sanity check. If someone tells you "EUR/USD always goes up on Mondays" — compare it against this baseline first.
- 2
Combine with session data (available in Pro). London session bullish closes differ significantly from New York session closes — the aggregate 50.7% hides this.
- 3
When you're at a demand zone, the 50.7% bullish baseline rises once you add streak and distance filters (see below). That's where the real edge is.
Real trading application
Price is at a demand zone at 9 AM. You check the daily close probability: 50.7% bullish. That alone gives you no directional edge — but it confirms the market isn't inherently biased against you. Now you layer on the other four statistics.
Daily Open-Close Range Probability
EUR/USD · How far does the candle body actually travel?
What it measures
On every bullish and bearish day, this tracks the pip distance between the open and close price — the candle body size. It then groups them into thresholds to show what percentage of days stay within a given pip range.
Bullish days
Bearish days
How to apply it
Setting realistic targets
If you're long from a demand zone and expecting a bullish day, history says 73% of bullish days gain less than 40 pips. Your first TP should reflect this — don't set a 100-pip target without a specific structural reason.
Recognising exhaustion
You're in a short trade and price has already fallen 75 pips from the open. 77% of bearish days close within 80 pips. The statistical case for extension is weakening — consider a partial take-profit here.
Quick sizing rule of thumb
If you're entering early in the session with no prior candle body movement, aim for 30–40 pips as your first target. If price has already moved 50+ pips in your direction, the historical odds of the body extending further drop sharply — take partial profits.
Bullish / Bearish Streak End Probabilities
EUR/USD · After 3+ consecutive same-direction closes
What it measures
When EUR/USD closes in the same direction three or more days in a row (three bullish candles, or three bearish candles), what is the probability the next candle reverses? This is one of the most powerful mean-reversion signals in the dataset.
3+ Bull → Bear next
87.9%
streak reversal
3+ Bear → Bull next
87.4%
streak reversal
3+ Higher Highs → Bear
87.2%
structural reversal
3+ Lower Lows → Bull
87.0%
structural reversal
Why does this happen?
Markets are mean-reverting by nature at the daily level. A 3-day run in one direction typically coincides with price reaching a structural extreme — a supply or demand zone, a round number, a prior swing high or low. The 87% stat is the market's way of saying "extended moves get faded."
How to apply it
Long setup — demand zone after bearish streak
EUR/USD has closed bearish 4 days in a row and is now sitting on a strong D1 demand zone. The streak reversal probability is 87.4%. This is your highest-probability long setup — the zone provides the entry reason, the streak stat provides the statistical backing.
Short setup — supply zone after bullish streak
Price has made 4 consecutive higher highs and is now at a supply zone. The structural reversal probability after 3+ higher highs is 87.2%. Ideal short entry with tight stop above the supply zone high.
How to spot a streak in real time
Count consecutive bearish daily candles on the D1 chart. At 3 or more, the reversal probability is ≥87%.
Daily Close After High / Low Break
EUR/USD · Prior day high and low as reference points
What it measures
This group tracks how often a bullish day actually breaks the prior day's high (PDH), and how often a bearish day breaks the prior day's low (PDL). It also tracks whether they form a higher low or a lower high — the classic structure of trending vs. ranging price.
Why prior day levels matter
The prior day high and low are the most-watched levels by institutional traders. When price sweeps a PDH and fails, that's stop-hunting before a reversal. When it sweeps and closes above, that's genuine bullish continuation. This stat helps you distinguish between the two.
How to apply it
Confirming a long trade
Price sweeps the PDL early in London, immediately rejects and returns inside range, closing above the PDL. Since 67% of bearish days break PDL, but fewer close below, this sweep-and-reject pattern at a demand zone is a high-quality long signal.
Identifying a fake breakout
Price breaks PDH in the first hour but immediately reverses into a supply zone. Since only 66% of bullish days actually close above PDH, a break-and-fail at supply is a statistically valid short entry — you're betting on the 34% rejection scenario.
Key levels to mark every morning
PDH — prior day high (66% of bullish days will break this)
PDL — prior day low (67% of bearish days will break this)
Prior close — the anchor reference for today's open-close calculation
Close Probability by Distance From Open
EUR/USD · The most actionable intraday filter in the dataset
What it measures
This is the statistic most traders underestimate. It answers a question you face mid-session every single day: "Price has moved X pips from the open — what are the odds it closes in the same or opposite direction?"
The numbers are asymmetric and highly actionable. Once price has moved significantly in one direction from the open, the probability of reversing to close the other way collapses dramatically.
Bull close if ≥80p up
69.7%
↑ Continuation likely
Bull close if ≥50p down
13.2%
↓ Reversal very unlikely
Bear close if ≥90p down
75.2%
↓ Continuation likely
Bear close if ≥40p up
12.7%
↑ Reversal very unlikely
How to apply it — two scenarios
Holds your long with confidence
You bought a demand zone and price has risen 80+ pips. Do you take profit or hold? Historically 69.7% of days that move 80+ pips up close bullish. Hold with a trailing stop — the odds are with you.
Stops you entering a counter-trend long
It's 2 PM and price has already fallen 55 pips from the open. You see a demand zone and want to buy. Only 13.2% of days that fall 50+ pips from open recover to close bullish. This stat says wait for tomorrow's open or size down significantly.
The 13% warning — know when to stand aside
The 13.2% statistic is the most important number for avoiding bad trades. If price is 50+ pips below the open and you're considering a long, you're fighting the trend in 86.8% of historical cases. This is not the spot to be a hero — even if a demand zone is present.
Stacking the Confluences
No single statistic gives you an edge. The real power comes from stacking them — each one that aligns with your trade direction raises the probability. Here are three complete examples.
Setup Example 1
High-confidence long
Price at D1 demand zone (supply/demand edge)
3+ consecutive bearish daily closes (87.4% reversal)
Swept prior day low and rejected (PDL sweep pattern)
Price is less than 30 pips from daily open (distance filter clear)
London session — session timing aligned
Verdict: Highest probability setup. All 5 factors aligned.
Setup Example 2
Medium-confidence long
Price at H4 demand zone
2 bearish closes (not yet 3 — streak not triggered)
PDL not yet reached — prior low still intact
Price only 15 pips below open (distance filter fine)
NY session — lower historical edge than London
Verdict: 3 of 5 aligned. Consider reduced size or tighter stop.
Setup Example 3
Avoid this long
Price at demand zone
3+ bullish closes heading into zone — trend is still up (no reversal signal)
Price already 60 pips below open — only 13.2% chance of bullish close
PDL already broken and price closed below it yesterday
Asian session — minimal directional edge
Verdict: Only 1 of 5 aligned. Statistics say stand aside.
Get Session-Level Probability Data Across All Pairs
Everything on this page is the daily aggregate. SmartFinanceData goes deeper — London session vs. New York session probabilities, day-of-week calendars, 24+ pairs, and the streak data filtered by session. The difference is significant.
Session-level close probabilities
London AM vs. NY session close rates are meaningfully different — and now you can trade them separately.
Daily probability calendar
Which day of the week is historically most bullish for EUR/USD? Now you can filter your zone trades by calendar day.
All 24+ major and minor pairs
The same five probability groups shown here, available for every pair you trade — GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, and more.