Enhance Your S&D Trading Using Verifed Data & Statistics!

Explore a collection of insightful probabilities and statistics I’ve uncovered for a variety of forex pairs. Use these insights to set precise, data-driven stop losses, identify optimal profit-taking points before the market turns, and enhance the profitability of your trading strategies.

Download The PDF’s Below (FREE!) For Data-Driven Strategies & Insights.

???? Trade The Turn: Fading Consecutive Daily Streaks (Bullish/Bearish)
⚙️ Daily Bias: Use High-Probability Days (+64%) To Enter With A Daily Bias
???? Bulletproof Trades: Set Unbreakable SD Stops Using Weekday Data!
???? Struggle With Trends: Time Easy Entries Using High Probability Days
???? Weekday Highs/Lows: Your Secret Weapon For Smarter Exits

Key Point: The data below is pulled directly from SmartFinanceData.com, my website for sharing (and remembering!) important FX statistics and data!

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Table Of Contents

EUR/USD: High/Low Range Probability
EUR/USD: Open – Low Range Probability (Bullish Days)
EUR/USD: Open – High Range Probability (Bearish Days)
EUR/USD: Open – High Range Probability (Bearish Days)
EUR/USD: Open – Low Range Probability (Bearish Days)
USD/JPY Consecutive Bullish Day Odds %
USD/JPY: Consecutive Bearish Day Odds %
AUD/USD: High/Low Break Probability
GBP/USD: Daily Close Probability Febuary
Data Insights FAQ: Your Questions Answered!

EUR/USD: High/Low Range Probability

Explore EUR/USD’s daily high/low range behavior from January 4th, 1999 to January 1st, 2023. Uncover the frequency and probability of Highs and Lows forming at specific distances from the Open price, providing key insights for placing stops and taking profits.

⚙️ Important Note: Open the tabs to learn critical figures and probabilities underpinning EUR/USD’s dataset and price movements.

???? Dataset Overview

Dataset Range: 25 Years
Start Of Dataset: 04 January 1999
End Of Dataset: 01 January, 2023
Highest Close: 22 April 2008 (1.599)
Lowest Close: 25 October 2000 (0.8271)
Largest Gain: 18 March 2009 (3.46%)
Largest Loss: 03 January 2001 (-2.59%)
Average Trading Volume: 129728
Highest Volume: 20 June 2013 (2763921)
Lowest Volume: 01 January 2018 (4021)

???? General Probabilities

Bullish Close: 50.7% (3243/6420)
Bearish Close: 49.2% (3146/6420)

Bullish Days Higher High/Lower Low Probability:

Lower Low: 30.03% (974/3243)
Higher Low: 69.41% (2251/3243)
Lower High: 33.27% (1079/3243)
Higher High: 66.54% (2158/3243)

Note: All Bullish Days hold a 69.41% chance of breaking the prior days high, and a 69.41% chance of forming a higher low.

Bearish Days Lower Low/Higher High Probability:

Lower Low: 67.29% (2117/3146)
Higher Low: 32.64% (1027/3146)
Lower High: 68.28% (2148/3146)
Higher High: 31.12% (979/3146)

Note: All Bearish Days hold a 67.29% chance of breaking the prior days low, and a 69.41% chance of forming a lower high.

???? Volatility Statistics

Mean: 0.001%
Median: 0.000%
Mode: 0.000%
Standard Error: 0.007%
Standard Deviation: 0.59%
Sample Variance: 0.004%
Kurtosis: 1.83
Skewness: 0.08
Price Change Range: 6.7%
Minimum Price Change: -3.2%
Maximum Price Change: 3.5%

???? Numbers Breakdown

Bullish Days In Dataset: 3243/6420
Bearish Days In Dataset: 3146/6420
Bullish Weeks: 651 (604/1282)
Bearish Weeks: 631 (625/1282)
Bullish Months: 149 (154/295)
Bearish Months: 146 (130/295)
Total Days: 6420
Total Weeks: 1229
Total Months: 284
Total Years: 25

EUR/USD: Open – Low Range Probability (Bullish Days)

The “Open – Low” table shows the probability of a Low forming within a specific number of pips from the Open during Bullish Days on EUR/USD.

EUR/USD: Open – High Range Probability (Bearish Days)

The “Open – High” table shows the probability of a High forming within a specific number of pips from the Open during Bearish Days on EUR/USD.

???? How Can I Use This Data?

Set your stop loss 50 pips BELOW the Open on bullish days.

91.18% of bullish days form a Low within 50 pips of the Open. This offers high chance (91.18%) your stop loss won’t be hit, minimizing unnecessary exits.

Comfortable with a slightly higher risk?

Consider setting your stop loss 30 or 40 pips below the Open. This provides a nice balance between protecting your capital and allowing the trade room to breathe.

Key Note: Calculate your stop-loss distance by taking a range from the table then subtracting the (Pips) from your entry.

Example:

1) Eur/Usd Opens at 1.21000.
2) You buy at 1.21300.
3) Stop @ 1.21000.
4) Stop = 30 PIPS!!

Now you can only risk 30 pips on the trade!

Data shows 91.18% of bullish days form a low within 50 pips of the Opening price. However, considering your entry was already 30 pips above the open, this shrinks the range to just 30 pips!

Pro Tip: As price moves in your favor, consider trailing your stop loss to reduce the range further and lock in profits.

???? How Can I Use This Data?

Set your stop loss 50 pips ABOVE the Open on bearish days.

92.02% of bearish days form a High within 50 pips of the Open. This offers a high chance (92.02%) your stop loss won’t be hit most days, minimizing unnecessary exits.

Comfortable with a slightly higher risk?

Consider setting your stop loss 30 or 40 pips above the Open. This provides a balance between protecting your capital and allowing the trade room to breathe.

Key Note: Calculate your stop-loss distance by taking a range from the table then subtracting the first number from your entry.

Example:

1) Eur/Usd Opens at 1.21000.
2) You sell at 1.20700.
3) Stop @ 1.21000.
4) Stop = 30 PIPS!!

Now you can only risk 30 pips on the trade!

Data shows 92.02% of bearish days form a high within 50 pips of the Opening price. However, considering your entry was already 30 pips below the open, this shrinks the range to just 30 pips!

Pro Tip: As price moves in your favor, consider trailing your stop loss to reduce the range further and lock in profits.

EUR/USD: Open – High Range Probability (Bearish Days)

The “Open – High” table shows the probability of a High forming within a specific number of pips from the Open during Bullish Days on EUR/USD.

EUR/USD: Open – Low Range Probability (Bearish Days)

The “Open – Low” table shows the probability of a Low forming within a specific number of pips from the Open during Bearish Days on EUR/USD.

???? What Does The Table Show?

The table above shows 75.42% of all bullish days form a high within 900 pips of the opening price. When price approaches or surpasses the 900 pip mark above the open on a bullish day, it suggests a significant portion of the day’s upward potential may have been realized.

This doesn’t mean price can’t go higher, but the majority (75.42%) of bullish days have historically formed a high below 1000 pips.

???? Key Takeaways!

1) Use the 900 pip level as a potential profit-taking trigger on bullish days (only 24.58% of days close higher!)

2) Be cautious about chasing further gains if price rises 900+ pips from the open.

3) Consider adjusting profit targets or tightening stop-loss orders if price forms a high 900 pips away.

4) Use the distances to help time reversals at key technical points (SD Zones Psychological Levels).

5) If price moves 600 pips from the open, the high holds around a 50/50 chance of breaking or holding (54.24%).

6) Don’t secure profits unless price moves at least 300 pips from the Open – only 22.12% of days form a high lower.

DON’T FORGET: The high always forms above the close during bullish days, making a retracement from the high likely at some point during the day.

Keep this in mind when securing profits or adjusting your stop loss position according to the table. 

???? What Does The Table Show?

The table above shows 75.24% of all bearish days form a high within 900 pips of the opening price. When price approaches or surpasses the 900 pip mark above the open on a bullish day, it suggests a significant portion of the day’s upward potential may have been realized.

This doesn’t mean price can’t go higher, but the majority (75.24%) of bullish days have historically formed a high below 900 pips.

???? Key Takeaways!

1) Use the 900 pip level as a potential profit-taking trigger on bullish days (only 24.66% of days close higher!)

2) Be cautious about chasing further gains if a high forms 900 pips from the open.

3) Consider adjusting profit targets or tightening stop-loss orders if price forms a high 900 pips away.

4) Use the distances to help time reversals at key technical points (SD Zones Psychological Levels).

5) If price moves 600 pips from the open, the high holds around a 50/50 chance of breaking or holding (53.27%).

6) Don’t secure profits unless price moves at least 300 pips from the Open: Only 22.44% of days form a high lower.

DON’T FORGET: The high always forms above the close during bullish days, making a retracement from the high likely at some point during the day.

Keep this in mind when securing profits or adjusting your stop loss position according to the table. 

USD/JPY Consecutive Bullish Day Odds %

The “Streaks Chart” visually represents the frequency and duration of consecutive bullish days on USD/JPY, from 1980 to 2023. Analyze this chart alongside the probability table for information on market momentum and identify opportunities to fade extended bullish streaks.

???? What Does The Data Reveal?

Analysis of USD/JPY reveals a limited capacity for sustained bullish momentum.

Extended streaks beyond four days are infrequent, comprising only 5.75% of all bullish streaks between 1980 and 2023. Single bullish days followed by a bearish day appeared 1418 times, representing 48.81% of all observable bullish streak occurrences!

Erratic price action underscores the market’s strong tendency towards short-term reversals rather than prolonged bullish trends.

Key Takeaway: USD/JPY holds an 87.26% probability of reversing after 3+ consecutive bullish days. Monitor lower timeframes for bearish reversal signals (e.g., pin bar, bearish engulfing) to confirm the reversal and time your short entries accordingly.

???? Key Trading Takeaways!

1) Streaks of 3+ bullish days hold a minimum 87.94% chance of closing bearish the folllowing day, making them prime for fading!

2) While longer streaks seem to offer even higher probabilities (above 95%), fewer occurrences means less reliable actual odds. This doesn’t mean longer streaks aren’t worth watching (they are), just the probabilities are skewed slightly due to less occurences.

3) Bullish streaks can provide confirmation for supply zones.
Check if 3+ consecutive bearish days preceeds price entering a supply zone: 3-Day streaks hold a 87.94% of closing bullish the next day, significantly improving the chance of a reversal.

USD/JPY: Consecutive Bearish Day Odds %

The “Streaks Chart” visually represents the frequency and duration of consecutive bearish days on USD/JPY, from 1980 to 2023. Analyze this chart alongside the probability table for information on market momentum and identify opportunities to fade extended bearish streaks.

???? What Does The Data Reveal?

USD/JPY struggles to maintain extended bearish runs – a fact our data reinforces.

Our analysis reveals 1531 single day streaks, where a bearish day was immediately followed by a bullish reversal. Extended declines are rare, with streaks exceeding four consecutive bearish days accounting for a mere 5.25% of all streak instances – only one 12-day bearish streak appeared in our entire dataset!

Key Takeaway: Contrary to popular belief, extended bearish streaks are uncommon and often lead to reversals. Don’t fall for the momentum fallacy! Instead, use our probability tables to pinpoint high-probability bullish entries after 3+ consecutive bearish days.

???? Key Trading Takeaways!

1) Streaks of 3+ bearish days hold a minimum 88.39% chance of closing bullish the folllowing day, making them prime for fading!

2) While longer streaks seem to offer even higher probabilities (above 95%), fewer occurrences means less reliable actual odds. This doesn’t mean longer streaks aren’t worth watching (they are), just the probabilities are skewed slightly due to less occurences.

3) Bearish streaks can provide confirmation to demand zones. Check if 3+ consecutive bearish days preceed price entering a zone: 3-Day streaks hold a 88.39% of closing bullish the next day, improving the chance of a reversal.

AUD/USD: High/Low Break Probability

The tables below present the probabilities of AUD/USD exceeding the highest or lowest prices recorded each weekday by the end of the same week, based on that day’s percentage increase or decrease in value. Use these probabilities when optimizing stop-loss and take-profit levels.

GBP/USD: Daily Close Probability Febuary

The table below provides a detailed breakdown of the historical closing probability for all Febuary trading days on GBP/USD. The data also includes the number of times each day closed bullish or bearish historically, validating our analysis and probability figures.

Use these insights to help you time your trades, align your lower timeframe strategies with each days closing odds, and boost your overall success trading GBP/USD.

Key Point: Each day with a probability above 64% includes a full breakdown of its historical closes, complete with OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) data. Explore each bullish/bearish close for these high-probability days and verify the accuracy of the numbers.

Note: All Charts and Tables include sorting/filtering options to quickly find high-probability days for trading and gaining a daily bias for each day.

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Data Insights FAQ: Your Questions Answered!

Find answers to your top questions about our Insights and Strategies below. Need more in-depth help about the charts and datasets presented? Contact us directly – we’re always here to support your trading journey!

FAQ: What Does “Occurrences” Mean In Your Data?

“Occurrences” or “Events” simply mean the number of times a specific pattern or event happened in our historical price data.

Examples:

Consecutive Days: If you see “545 occurrences for three consecutive bullish days,” it means we found 545 instances where the price went up for three days in a row, then went down on the fourth day.

Specific Patterns: If a candlestick pattern, like a “pin bar,” has 720 occurrences, it means that pattern showed up 720 times in our data.

Why it Matters:

The more occurrences we see (the larger the sample size), the more reliable the associated probabilities and insights are, as we have more data to base our conclusions.

FAQ: How Do I Interpret The Probability Percentages?

Thanks so much for writing your guides, I’m reading them with interest and gratitude right now.

One thing about your “Avoid Rally Base Drop, DBR Zones” guide.

You say that at those zones most people would already be buying / selling in the same direction as the banks – which makes sense to me.

But then you conclude that the zone is weak – that doesn’t make sense to me.

Because the way I understand you is that you’re also saying: demand / supply zones work, because banks place orders but can’t fill their full position so when price returns they buy the rest and a reversal happens.
If one follows that logic, wouldn’t RBD / DBR zones be even higher probability for a reversal?

For if banks could only place small orders at those zones (because there weren’t many opposing traders), that means their remaining orders to fill their whole positions should be even larger and would be placed / filled when price returns.

I’m sure I’ve got something wrong here, but this is the way it currently makes sense to me.

Would be grateful for your feedback!

My Answer:

Appreciate the kind words!

Now, about your question…

You’re wondering if banks can’t place their trades at RBR/DBD zones, should price be more likely to swing back so they can place the rest?

Short answer: Nope.

Here’s why…

At RBR/DBD zones, banks only enter in small trades due to the tiny amount of counter orders. No big trades here, they simply lack the orders to do so.

So, no leftovers at RBR/DBD zones.

They just play their hand according to the orders available.

Hence, if the price does reverse… don’t bank on the zone causing a reversal. Why? Because the banks don’t have any remaining orders to place there.

Their massive trades?

They save those for kick-starting new trends/swings and significant retracements or consolidations.

The stalls, minor pauses causing RBR/DBD zones to form?

Here, they only enter small trades.

The banks know there’s not enough order flow to place giant trades, so they save their ammo for when there’s a flood of orders, like during major consolidations and retracements.

You’re onto something with your question.

Just need to put yourself in the banks’ shoes more.

Why would they place small trades, then pull the price back to execute the rest, when letting the price rise further (assuming an RBR zone) sets them up for a major retracement later on, where they can place much larger trades into the market?

Doesn’t add up, right?

Good on you for thinking this through, just a little wide of the mark.

Cheers…
PAN.

FAQ: Can I Get This Data For Different Timeframes (1-hour, Daily?)

Our current analysis primarily focuses on the daily timeframe, with each data point representing a single trading day. However, we’re continuously expanding our research and are excited to soon offer insights from shorter timeframes, such as 1-hour and 5-minute charts.

Expect even more granular data and potential trading opportunities.

Stay tuned for updates!

FAQ: How Do You Ensure Your Data Is Accurate And Error-free?

Our foundational data is sourced from Barchart Premium, a recognized industry leader in market information, ensuring the accuracy and reliability of our analysis.

We then apply rigorous internal quality checks to further validate our findings.

You’ll often notice high occurrence counts for high-probability events in our analysis. This is a testament to the extensive amount of price data we process, underscoring the robustness and reliability of our statistical insights.

Rest assured: Our data-driven conclusions are always backed by thorough analysis.

FAQ: What Is The Timeline for Adding New Charts And Data?

Get ready for a weekly dose of trading insights!

We’re constantly expanding our arsenal of game-changing charts, datasets, and probability figures to enhance your trading. Stay tuned for exciting updates that will revolutionize your analysis and decision-making.

Stay tuned for updates!