How To Asses Consolidation Breakout Probability

Hi sir,

Please find the attachment 

I have this question when I am reading your book

Could you clarify please

Thank you 

Regards

My Response:

To predict which way the price might break, observe where the consolidation occurs relative to the trend. Suppose it forms after a long, unbroken fall in the market.

In that case, it’s more probable that the price will break upwards.

Why?

Because banks often need to coax traders into making the wrong moves to drive the price even lower.

On the flip side, if the market has been on a steady rise without significant retracements or extended consolidations, expect the break to be downwards.

It’s a classic trick – banks get traders to sell, enabling the banks to buy more.

Of course, this isn’t an infallible method.

The price won’t always break as predicted, but using this approach could help you catch major reversals.