Daily Supply & Demand Zones

Daily supply & demand levels based on real market structure, used by thousands of traders learning professional price action.

Updated Daily at 9:00 AM GMT

4 Major Currency Pairs

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Note: BUY/SELL pressure shown below is sourced from OANDA's real-time order book — the same institutional-grade data used in the charts. www.oanda-order-book.com .

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Key Currency Pairs Analysis

Detailed supply and demand zone analysis for major currency pairs, updated daily using institutional order flow data.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Analysis

Live

Current Price: 1.13699 | Daily Range: 1.13649 - 1.14012

Last updated: 2026.07.24 23:59:04

Trend Status:

Daily: — 1H: — Intra-Day: — COT: —

Price Movement:

Volatility: — ADR: — Streak: — Open-Close: —

New Highs/Lows:

Week: — Month: — 20D: — 50D: — 100D: — 200D: — 52W: —

Daily Close Probability

Historical likelihood of a bullish or bearish daily close.

Bullish Close Chance:

The probability of the day's closing price being higher than its opening price.

50.7%

Bearish Close Chance:

The probability of the day's closing price being lower than its opening price.

49.2%

(1-Hour) Bullish Close Chance:

The probability of the current hour's closing price being higher than its opening price.

NS%

(1-Hour) Bearish Close Chance:

The probability of the current hour's closing price being lower than its opening price.

NS%

Daily Open-Close Range Probability

Statistics the likelihood of candle bodies falling within certain pip thresholds.

Bullish Days Gain Less Than 70 Pips:

Percentage of times a bullish candle body forms under 70 pips.

91.07%

Bullish Days Gain Less Than 40 Pips:

Percentage of times a bullish candle body forms under 40 pips.

73.45%

Bearish Days Decline Less Than 80 Pips:

Percentage of times a bearish candle body forms under 80 pips.

77.84%

Bearish Days Decline Less Than 50 Pips:

Percentage of times a bearish candle body forms under 50 pips.

59.50%

Bullish/Bearish Streak End Probabilities

Probabilities of a trend reversal after a series of bullish or bearish closes.

After 3+ Bullish Candles → Bearish Close:

The chance a bullish streak ends with a bearish close.

87.94%

After 3+ Bearish Candles → Bullish Close:

The chance a bearish streak ends with a bullish close.

87.41%

After 3+ Daily Higher Highs → Bearish Close:

Probability of a bearish close after a 1-hour bullish streak.

87.18%

After 3+ Daily Lower Lows → Bullish Close:

Probability of a bullish close after a 1-hour bearish streak.

87.03%

Daily Close After High/Low Break

Probabilities of closing price behavior after a high or low is broken.

Bullish Days Break Prior Days High

The probability that a bullish day's high surpasses the previous day's high.

66.54%

Bullish Days Form Higher Low:

The probability that a bullish day's low is higher than the previous day's low.

69.41%

Bearish Days Break Prior Days Low:

The probability that a bearish day's low drops below the previous day's low.

67.29%

Bearish Days Form Lower High:

The probability that a bearish day's high is lower than the previous day's high.

68.28%

Daily Close Stats Price Distance From Open

Probabilities of closing price behavior based on movement from the open.

Bullish Close if Price Rises ≥ 80 pips from Open:

The probability of a bullish close if the price rises at least 80 pips from the opening price.

69.69%

Bullish Close if Price Falls ≥ 50 pips from Open:

The probability of a bullish close if the price falls at least 50 pips from the opening price.

13.23%

Bearish Close if Price Falls ≥ 90 pips from Open:

The probability of a bearish close if the price falls at least 90 pips from the opening price.

75.24%

Bearish Close if Price Rises ≥ 40 pips from Open:

The probability of a bearish close if the price rises at least 40 pips from the opening price.

12.71%

Dataset Breakdown (Daily/1-Hour)

The total number of bullish and bearish candles analyzed.

Bullish Candles Analyzed

The total count of daily bullish candles in the dataset.

3243

Bearish Candles Analyzed

The total count of daily bearish candles in the dataset.

3146

Total Candles Analyzed

The total count of daily candles in the dataset.

6420

Dataset Range (Years)

The total count of 1-hour bearish candles in the dataset.

Session-specific probabilities

Statistical Notes

Our EUR/USD data provides key insights on notable price behaviors observed from January 1st 1999 to January 1st, 2023. Our analysis reveals hidden patterns, price behaviors, and trading opportunities, offering a complete overview of EUR/USD market dynamics.

Key Fundamental Drivers

The core macro forces that move EUR/USD.

ECB vs Fed Policy Divergence:

The relative pace of rate hikes/cuts between the ECB and Fed is the single biggest driver of medium-term direction.

High Impact

Interest Rate Differential:

The gap between Eurozone and US 2yr/10yr government bond yields underpins carry-trade flows into or out of the euro.

High Impact

Eurozone Growth vs US Growth:

Relative GDP, PMI and industrial output trends shape expectations for future rate paths.

Medium Impact

Risk Sentiment (Risk-On/Off):

The dollar's safe-haven status means broad risk-off moves tend to weigh on EUR/USD independent of Eurozone-specific news.

Medium Impact

Key Correlations

Approximate rolling correlation with related markets, used for confluence checks.

US Dollar Index (DXY):

EUR/USD makes up roughly 57.6% of the DXY basket, so the two move almost as mirror images.

Strong Negative

GBP/USD:

Shared exposure to broad USD strength/weakness keeps these two pairs moving together most of the time.

Strong Positive

USD/CHF:

As the Swiss franc tracks the euro closely, USD/CHF tends to be an inverse mirror of EUR/USD.

Strong Negative

Gold (XAU/USD):

Both are priced against the dollar, so a weaker dollar typically lifts both EUR/USD and gold together.

Moderate Positive

US 10-Year Treasury Yield:

Rising US yields widen the rate differential in the dollar's favor, pressuring EUR/USD lower.

Moderate Negative

S&P 500 / Global Risk Assets:

Correlation shifts with the macro regime; during risk-off equity selloffs, dollar demand tends to weigh on EUR/USD.

Variable / Regime-Dependent

Key Economic Events to Watch

Scheduled releases with the highest historical impact on EUR/USD volatility.

Fed Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference:

FOMC rate decisions and Powell's forward guidance are typically the single biggest volatility events for the pair.

High

ECB Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference:

Lagarde's tone on inflation and rate path drives sharp intraday repricing of the euro leg.

High

US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP):

Monthly US jobs data shifts Fed rate-cut/hike expectations and routinely produces the largest single-day ranges of the month.

High

US CPI (Inflation):

Core and headline US inflation readings directly reprice Fed rate-cut timing.

High

Eurozone Flash CPI:

Early inflation signal for the bloc that shapes ECB policy expectations ahead of the official decision.

Medium

Eurozone & German PMI/Ifo:

Germany's outsized weight in the Eurozone economy makes its surveys an early growth signal.

Medium

US ISM Manufacturing/Services PMI:

Leading indicator of US economic momentum that feeds into growth and rate expectations.

Medium

US Retail Sales & GDP:

Confirms or challenges the consumer-strength narrative underpinning US growth and dollar demand.

Medium

Positioning & Seasonality

Structural and calendar-based tendencies that add context to daily price action.

CFTC Net Speculative Positioning:

Extreme long or short positioning by large speculators often precedes short-covering reversals.

Weekly (COT)

Month-End / Quarter-End Rebalancing:

Large real-money flows tied to index and portfolio rebalancing can distort the last trading hours of the month.

Recurring

Summer Liquidity (Jul–Aug):

Thinner summer liquidity can produce sharper, less reliable moves outside of London/NY overlap.

Seasonal

London/NY Session Overlap:

The bulk of EUR/USD's daily volume and range occurs during the London/New York overlap.

12:00–16:00 GMT

Key Resources

Trusted sources to verify data and track releases in real time.

Economic Calendar: Investing.com

ECB Rate Decisions: ECB.europa.eu

Fed / FOMC Decisions: FederalReserve.gov

CFTC COT Reports: CFTC.gov

US Yields & Rates Data: FRED.stlouisfed.org

DXY / Dollar Index Chart: TradingView.com

Session Times (GMT)

Standard session windows — shift by an hour during UK/US daylight-saving mismatches.

Sydney Session:

Lowest EUR/USD volume of the day, typically ranges of just a few pips outside of headlines.

21:00–06:00

Tokyo Session:

Light EUR/USD activity — moves here are more often JPY or AUD driven.

00:00–09:00

London Session:

The main EUR/USD driver — the London open often sets the tone and range for the rest of the day.

08:00–17:00

New York Session:

Where most US data releases land — combined with London overlap this window carries the day's highest volatility.

13:00–22:00

London/NY Overlap:

Peak liquidity window — the tightest spreads and largest average ranges occur here.

13:00–17:00

Fundamentals Notes

Correlations are approximate and regime-dependent — they can weaken or invert during central bank policy shifts, geopolitical shocks, or liquidity crunches. Treat this section as context for the technical zones above, not a standalone signal.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Analysis

Live

Current Price: 1.13699 | Daily Range: 1.13649 - 1.14012

Last updated: 2026.07.24 23:59:04

Trend Status:

Daily: — 1H: — Intra-Day: — COT: —

Price Movement:

Volatility: — ADR: — Streak: — Open-Close: —

New Highs/Lows:

Week: — Month: — 20D: — 50D: — 100D: — 200D: — 52W: —

Daily Close Probability

Historical likelihood of a bullish or bearish daily close.

Bullish Close Chance:

The probability of the day's closing price being higher than its opening price.

50.7%

Bearish Close Chance:

The probability of the day's closing price being lower than its opening price.

49.2%

(1-Hour) Bullish Close Chance:

The probability of the current hour's closing price being higher than its opening price.

NS%

(1-Hour) Bearish Close Chance:

The probability of the current hour's closing price being lower than its opening price.

NS%

Daily Open-Close Range Probability

Statistics the likelihood of candle bodies falling within certain pip thresholds.

Bullish Days Gain Less Than 80 Pips:

Percentage of times a bullish candle body forms under 80 pips.

68.65%

Bullish Days Gain Less Than 130 Pips:

Percentage of times a bullish candle body forms under 130 pips.

86.40%

Bearish Days Decline Less Than 80 Pips:

Percentage of times a bearish candle body forms under 80 pips.

69.60%

Bearish Days Decline Less Than 130 Pips:

Percentage of times a bearish candle body forms under 130 pips.

87.38%

Bullish/Bearish Streak End Probabilities

Probabilities of a trend reversal after a series of bullish or bearish closes.

After 3+ Bullish Candles → Bearish Close:

The chance a bullish streak ends with a bearish close.

86.53%

After 3+ Bearish Candles → Bullish Close:

The chance a bearish streak ends with a bullish close.

86.72%

After 3+ Daily Higher Highs → Bearish Close:

Probability of a bearish close after a 1-hour bullish streak.

86.89%

After 3+ Daily Lower Lows → Bullish Close:

Probability of a bullish close after a 1-hour bearish streak.

85.45%

Daily Close After High/Low Break

Probabilities of closing price behavior after a high or low is broken.

Bullish Days Break Prior Days High

The probability that a bullish day's high surpasses the previous day's high.

66.34%

Bullish Days Form Higher Low:

The probability that a bullish day's low is higher than the previous day's low.

70.29%

Bearish Days Break Prior Days Low:

The probability that a bearish day's low drops below the previous day's low.

65.42%

Bearish Days Form Lower High:

The probability that a bearish day's high is lower than the previous day's high.

69.44%

Daily Close Stats Price Distance From Open

Probabilities of closing price behavior based on movement from the open.

Bullish Close if Price Rises ≥ 110 pips from Open:

The probability of a bullish close if the price rises at least 110 pips from the opening price.

68.06%

Bullish Close if Price Falls ≥ 50 pips from Open:

The probability of a bullish close if the price falls at least 50 pips from the opening price.

20.16%

Bearish Close if Price Falls ≥ 100 pips from Open:

The probability of a bearish close if the price falls at least 100 pips from the opening price.

61.08%

Bearish Close if Price Rises ≥ 50 pips from Open:

The probability of a bearish close if the price rises at least 50 pips from the opening price.

18.97%

Dataset Breakdown (Daily/1-Hour)

The total number of bullish and bearish candles analyzed.

Bullish Candles Analyzed

The total count of daily bullish candles in the dataset.

5032

Bearish Candles Analyzed

The total count of daily bearish candles in the dataset.

4882

Total Candles Analyzed

The total count of daily candles in the dataset.

10096

Dataset Range (Years)

The total count of 1-hour bearish candles in the dataset.

Unlock All Stats

Statistical Notes

Our GBP/USD data provides key insights on notable price behaviors observed from January 1st 1980 to January 1st, 2023. Our analysis reveals hidden patterns, price behaviors, and trading opportunities, offering a complete overview of GBP/USD market dynamics.

Key Fundamental Drivers

The core macro forces that move GBP/USD.

BoE vs Fed Policy Divergence:

The relative pace of rate hikes/cuts between the Bank of England and Fed is the single biggest driver of medium-term direction.

High Impact

Interest Rate Differential:

The gap between UK Gilt and US Treasury 2yr/10yr yields underpins carry-trade flows into or out of sterling.

High Impact

UK Growth vs US Growth:

Relative GDP, PMI and services-sector output shape expectations for the BoE's future rate path.

Medium Impact

Risk Sentiment (Risk-On/Off):

The dollar's safe-haven status means broad risk-off moves tend to weigh on GBP/USD independent of UK-specific news.

Medium Impact

Key Correlations

Approximate rolling correlation with related markets, used for confluence checks.

US Dollar Index (DXY):

GBP makes up roughly 11.9% of the DXY basket, so broad dollar strength/weakness tends to move Cable inversely.

Strong Negative

EUR/USD:

Shared exposure to broad USD strength/weakness keeps these two pairs moving together most of the time.

Strong Positive

EUR/GBP:

EUR/GBP isolates the sterling-specific leg — a rising EUR/GBP often signals sterling weakness dragging on GBP/USD even when the dollar is flat.

Moderate Negative

FTSE 100:

Many FTSE constituents earn revenue in dollars, so a weaker pound can lift the index even as GBP/USD falls — watch for this inverse-ish drift.

Weak / Inconsistent

Gold (XAU/USD):

Both are priced against the dollar, so a weaker dollar typically lifts both GBP/USD and gold together.

Moderate Positive

US 10-Year Treasury Yield:

Rising US yields widen the rate differential in the dollar's favor, pressuring GBP/USD lower.

Moderate Negative

S&P 500 / Global Risk Assets:

Correlation shifts with the macro regime; during risk-off equity selloffs, dollar demand tends to weigh on GBP/USD.

Variable / Regime-Dependent

Key Economic Events to Watch

Scheduled releases with the highest historical impact on GBP/USD volatility.

Fed Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference:

FOMC rate decisions and Powell's forward guidance are typically the single biggest volatility events for the pair.

High

BoE Interest Rate Decision & MPC Minutes:

The MPC vote split and Bailey's tone on inflation drive sharp intraday repricing of the sterling leg.

High

US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP):

Monthly US jobs data shifts Fed rate-cut/hike expectations and routinely produces the largest single-day ranges of the month.

High

US CPI (Inflation):

Core and headline US inflation readings directly reprice Fed rate-cut timing.

High

UK CPI (Inflation):

UK inflation surprises are one of the fastest-moving triggers for BoE rate-path repricing.

High

UK Employment & Wage Growth:

Wage growth data feeds directly into the BoE's assessment of persistent services inflation.

Medium

UK GDP & PMI (Services/Manufacturing):

Services PMI carries extra weight given how services-dominated the UK economy is.

Medium

US ISM Manufacturing/Services PMI:

Leading indicator of US economic momentum that feeds into growth and rate expectations.

Medium

UK Budget / Fiscal Announcements:

Chancellor's Budget and fiscal statements can shift gilt yields and sterling sharply on borrowing/spending surprises.

Medium

Positioning & Seasonality

Structural and calendar-based tendencies that add context to daily price action.

CFTC Net Speculative Positioning:

Extreme long or short positioning by large speculators often precedes short-covering reversals.

Weekly (COT)

Month-End / Quarter-End Rebalancing:

Large real-money flows tied to index and portfolio rebalancing can distort the last trading hours of the month.

Recurring

Summer Liquidity (Jul–Aug):

Thinner summer liquidity can produce sharper, less reliable moves outside of London/NY overlap.

Seasonal

London/NY Session Overlap:

The bulk of GBP/USD's daily volume and range occurs during the London/New York overlap.

12:00–16:00 GMT

Key Resources

Trusted sources to verify data and track releases in real time.

Economic Calendar: Investing.com

BoE Rate Decisions: BankOfEngland.co.uk

Fed / FOMC Decisions: FederalReserve.gov

UK ONS Economic Data: ONS.gov.uk

CFTC COT Reports: CFTC.gov

US Yields & Rates Data: FRED.stlouisfed.org

DXY / Dollar Index Chart: TradingView.com

Session Times (GMT)

Standard session windows — shift by an hour during UK/US daylight-saving mismatches.

Sydney Session:

Lowest GBP/USD volume of the day, typically ranges of just a few pips outside of headlines.

21:00–06:00

Tokyo Session:

Light GBP/USD activity — moves here are more often JPY or AUD driven.

00:00–09:00

London Session:

The main GBP/USD driver — as sterling's home session, the London open typically sets the tone and range for the rest of the day.

08:00–17:00

New York Session:

Where most US data releases land — combined with London overlap this window carries the day's highest volatility.

13:00–22:00

London/NY Overlap:

Peak liquidity window — the tightest spreads and largest average ranges occur here.

13:00–17:00

Fundamentals Notes

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Analysis

Live

Current Price: 1.13699 | Daily Range: 1.13649 - 1.14012

Last updated: 2026.07.24 23:59:04

Trend Status:

Daily: — 1H: — Intra-Day: — COT: —

Price Movement:

Volatility: — ADR: — Streak: — Open-Close: —

New Highs/Lows:

Week: — Month: — 20D: — 50D: — 100D: — 200D: — 52W: —

Daily Close Probability

Historical likelihood of a bullish or bearish daily close.

Bullish Close Chance:

The probability of the day's closing price being higher than its opening price.

51.6%

Bearish Close Chance:

The probability of the day's closing price being lower than its opening price.

48.3%

(1-Hour) Bullish Close Chance:

The probability of the current hour's closing price being higher than its opening price.

NS%

(1-Hour) Bearish Close Chance:

The probability of the current hour's closing price being lower than its opening price.

NS%

Daily Open-Close Range Probability

Statistics the likelihood of candle bodies falling within certain pip thresholds.

Bullish Days Gain Less Than 70 Pips:

Percentage of times a bullish candle body forms under 70 pips.

72.10%

Bullish Days Gain Less Than 120 Pips:

Percentage of times a bullish candle body forms under 120 pips.

89.95%

Bearish Days Decline Less Than 70 Pips:

Percentage of times a bearish candle body forms under 70 pips.

71.15%

Bearish Days Decline Less Than 120 Pips:

Percentage of times a bullish candle body forms under 120 pips.

88.35

Bullish/Bearish Streak End Probabilities

Probabilities of a trend reversal after a series of bullish or bearish closes.

After 3+ Bullish Candles → Bearish Close:

The chance a bullish streak ends with a bearish close.

87.26%

After 3+ Bearish Candles → Bullish Close:

The chance a bearish streak ends with a bullish close.

88.39%

After 3+ Daily Higher Highs → Bearish Close:

Probability of a bearish close after a 1-hour bullish streak.

86.92%

After 3+ Daily Lower Lows → Bullish Close:

Probability of a bullish close after a 1-hour bearish streak.

88.19%

Daily Close After High/Low Break

Probabilities of closing price behavior after a high or low is broken.

Bullish Days Break Prior Days High

The probability that a bullish day's high surpasses the previous day's high.

65.39%

Bullish Days Form Higher Low:

The probability that a bullish day's low is higher than the previous day's low.

71.67%

Bearish Days Break Prior Days Low:

The probability that a bearish day's low drops below the previous day's low.

64.38%

Bearish Days Form Lower High:

The probability that a bearish day's high is lower than the previous day's high.

69.60%

Daily Close Stats Price Distance From Open

Probabilities of closing price behavior based on movement from the open.

Bullish Close if Price Rises ≥ 100 pips from Open:

The probability of a bullish close if the price rises at least 100 pips from the opening price.

72.35%

Bullish Close if Price Falls ≥ 50 pips from Open:

The probability of a bullish close if the price falls at least 50 pips from the opening price.

14.00%

Bearish Close if Price Falls ≥ 100 pips from Open:

The probability of a bearish close if the price falls at least 100 pips from the opening price.

69.38%

Bearish Close if Price Rises ≥ 50 pips from Open:

The probability of a bearish close if the price rises at least 50 pips from the opening price.

10.96%

Dataset Breakdown (Daily/1-Hour)

The total number of bullish and bearish candles analyzed.

Bullish Candles Analyzed

The total count of daily bullish candles in the dataset.

5761

Bearish Candles Analyzed

The total count of daily bearish candles in the dataset.

5418

Total Candles Analyzed

The total count of daily candles in the dataset.

11179

Dataset Range (Years)

The total count of 1-hour bearish candles in the dataset.

Session-specific probabilities

Statistical Notes

Our USD/JPY data provides key insights on notable price behaviors observed from January 1st 1992 to January 1st, 2023. Our analysis reveals hidden patterns, price behaviors, and trading opportunities, offering a complete overview of USD/JPY market dynamics.

Key Fundamental Drivers

The core macro forces that move USD/JPY.

BoJ vs Fed Policy Divergence:

The BoJ's historically ultra-low rate stance against the Fed's is the single biggest driver of medium-term direction.

High Impact

US–Japan Yield Differential:

The gap between US Treasury and Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields underpins the yen carry trade and is the pair's dominant medium-term correlation.

High Impact

Risk Sentiment & Carry Trade Flows:

The yen's safe-haven status means risk-off shocks tend to trigger carry-trade unwinds that push USD/JPY sharply lower, independent of yield differentials.

High Impact

MoF / BoJ Intervention Risk:

At extended weak-yen levels, verbal warnings or direct intervention from Japan's Ministry of Finance can trigger violent, low-notice reversals.

Medium Impact

Key Correlations

Approximate rolling correlation with related markets, used for confluence checks.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield:

Of all major pairs, USD/JPY tracks US yields most tightly — rising yields widen the carry advantage and lift the pair almost in lockstep.

Strong Positive

US Dollar Index (DXY):

JPY makes up roughly 13.6% of the DXY basket, so broad dollar strength/weakness moves the two together.

Strong Positive

Nikkei 225:

A weaker yen boosts the earnings outlook for Japan's export-heavy index, so the two typically rise together.

Moderate Positive

S&P 500 / Global Risk Assets:

In calm markets carry-trade flows link the pair to risk-on equity strength, but in sharp selloffs this can invert as yen safe-haven demand dominates.

Variable / Regime-Dependent

Gold (XAU/USD):

Gold and the yen both attract safe-haven bids in stress events, so gold spikes often coincide with USD/JPY selling off.

Moderate Negative

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):

Spikes in equity volatility typically coincide with carry-trade unwinds, dragging USD/JPY sharply lower.

Moderate Negative

Key Economic Events to Watch

Scheduled releases with the highest historical impact on USD/JPY volatility.

Fed Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference:

FOMC rate decisions and Powell's forward guidance directly reset the US side of the yield differential.

High

BoJ Interest Rate Decision & Ueda Press Conference:

Any shift in policy rate, yield curve guidance, or hawkish tone from the BoJ governor can trigger outsized single-session moves given how rare Japanese policy shifts have historically been.

High

US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP):

Monthly US jobs data shifts Fed rate-cut/hike expectations and routinely produces the largest single-day ranges of the month.

High

US CPI (Inflation):

Core and headline US inflation readings directly reprice Fed rate-cut timing and the US leg of the yield gap.

High

Tokyo & National CPI:

Tokyo CPI prints roughly two weeks ahead of the national figure and is closely watched as an early signal for BoJ policy shifts.

Medium

BoJ Tankan Survey:

Quarterly survey of large-manufacturer sentiment that informs the BoJ's own growth and policy outlook.

Medium

US ISM Manufacturing/Services PMI:

Leading indicator of US economic momentum that feeds into growth and rate expectations.

Medium

MoF / BoJ Verbal Intervention Warnings:

Comments from Japan's top currency official warning against "excessive" or "one-sided" moves often precede actual intervention.

Medium

Positioning & Seasonality

Structural and calendar-based tendencies that add context to daily price action.

CFTC Net Speculative Positioning:

Yen shorts have historically built up to crowded extremes during carry-trade regimes, raising the risk of sharp short-covering squeezes.

Weekly (COT)

Japanese Fiscal Year-End Repatriation:

Japan's fiscal year ends March 31 — exporters and institutions repatriating profits can add yen-buying flow into month-end.

Seasonal (Mar)

Tokyo Fix (9:55 AM JST):

Corporate and institutional orders concentrated at the daily fix can produce a short-lived spike in volume and volatility.

Recurring (Daily)

London/NY Session Overlap:

Still the highest-liquidity window of the day overall, even though the pair also sees meaningful volume in Tokyo hours.

12:00–16:00 GMT

Key Resources

Trusted sources to verify data and track releases in real time.

Economic Calendar: Investing.com

BoJ Rate Decisions: BOJ.or.jp

Fed / FOMC Decisions: FederalReserve.gov

Japan MoF / Currency Policy: MOF.go.jp

CFTC COT Reports: CFTC.gov

US Yields & Rates Data: FRED.stlouisfed.org

DXY / Dollar Index Chart: TradingView.com

Session Times (GMT)

Standard session windows — shift by an hour during UK/US daylight-saving mismatches.

Sydney Session:

Quiet handover period, but early Asian risk sentiment here can set the tone heading into Tokyo.

21:00–06:00

Tokyo Session:

The yen's home session — unlike EUR/USD or GBP/USD, USD/JPY sees genuine volume here, especially around the Tokyo fix and BoJ-sensitive headlines.

00:00–09:00

London Session:

Builds on the Tokyo range with European flow, often extending or reversing the Asian session's move.

08:00–17:00

New York Session:

Where US yield-driving data lands — combined with London overlap this window carries the day's highest volatility.

13:00–22:00

London/NY Overlap:

Peak liquidity window — the tightest spreads and largest average ranges occur here.

13:00–17:00

Fundamentals Notes

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Analysis

Live

Current Price: 1.13699 | Daily Range: 1.13649 - 1.14012

Last updated: 2026.07.24 23:59:04

Trend Status:

Daily: — 1H: — Intra-Day: — COT: —

Price Movement:

Volatility: — ADR: — Streak: — Open-Close: —

New Highs/Lows:

Week: — Month: — 20D: — 50D: — 100D: — 200D: — 52W: —

Daily Close Probability

Historical likelihood of a bullish or bearish daily close.

Bullish Close Chance:

The probability of the day's closing price being higher than its opening price.

52.2%

Bearish Close Chance:

The probability of the day's closing price being lower than its opening price.

57.7%

(1-Hour) Bullish Close Chance:

The probability of the current hour's closing price being higher than its opening price.

NS%

(1-Hour) Bearish Close Chance:

The probability of the current hour's closing price being lower than its opening price.

NS%

Daily Open-Close Range Probability

Statistics the likelihood of candle bodies falling within certain pip thresholds.

Bullish Days Gain Less Than 70 Pips:

Percentage of times a bullish candle body forms under 70 pips.

91.07%

Bullish Days Gain Less Than 40 Pips:

Percentage of times a bullish candle body forms under 40 pips.

73.45%

Bearish Days Decline Less Than 80 Pips:

Percentage of times a bearish candle body forms under 80 pips.

77.84%

Bearish Days Decline Less Than 50 Pips:

Percentage of times a bearish candle body forms under 50 pips.

59.50%

Bullish/Bearish Streak End Probabilities

Probabilities of a trend reversal after a series of bullish or bearish closes.

After 3+ Bullish Candles → Bearish Close:

The chance a bullish streak ends with a bearish close.

86.34%

After 3+ Bearish Candles → Bullish Close:

The chance a bearish streak ends with a bullish close.

87.05%

After 3+ Daily Higher Highs → Bearish Close:

Probability of a bearish close after a 1-hour bullish streak.

86.44%

After 3+ Daily Lower Lows → Bullish Close:

Probability of a bullish close after a 1-hour bearish streak.

87.24%

Daily Close After High/Low Break

Probabilities of closing price behavior after a high or low is broken.

Bullish Days Break Prior Days High

The probability that a bullish day's high surpasses the previous day's high.

65.15%

Bullish Days Form Higher Low:

The probability that a bullish day's low is higher than the previous day's low.

67.25%

Bearish Days Break Prior Days Low:

The probability that a bearish day's low drops below the previous day's low.

64.34%

Bearish Days Form Lower High:

The probability that a bearish day's high is lower than the previous day's high.

66.87%

Daily Close Stats Price Distance From Open

Probabilities of closing price behavior based on movement from the open.

Bullish Close if Price Rises ≥ 70 pips from Open:

The probability of a bullish close if the price rises at least 70 pips from the opening price.

76.19%

Bullish Close if Price Falls ≥ 40 pips from Open:

The probability of a bullish close if the price falls at least 40 pips from the opening price.

10.39%

Bearish Close if Price Falls ≥ 70 pips from Open:

The probability of a bearish close if the price falls at least 70 pips from the opening price.

74.38%

Bearish Close if Price Rises ≥ 40 pips from Open:

The probability of a bearish close if the price rises at least 40 pips from the opening price.

9.96%

Dataset Breakdown (Daily/1-Hour)

The total number of bullish and bearish candles analyzed.

Bullish Candles Analyzed

The total count of daily bullish candles in the dataset.

4204

Bearish Candles Analyzed

The total count of daily bearish candles in the dataset.

3845

Total Candles Analyzed

The total count of daily candles in the dataset.

8049

Dataset Range (Years)

The total count of 1-hour bearish candles in the dataset.

Unlock All Stats

Statistical Notes

Our AUD/USD data provides key insights on notable price behaviors observed from January 1st 1992 to January 1st, 2023. Our analysis reveals hidden patterns, price behaviors, and trading opportunities, offering a complete overview of AUD/USD market dynamics.

Key Fundamental Drivers

The core macro forces that move AUD/USD.

RBA vs Fed Policy Divergence:

The relative pace of rate hikes/cuts between the RBA and Fed is the single biggest driver of medium-term direction.

High Impact

China Growth & Demand:

China absorbs the majority of Australia's commodity exports, so Chinese growth and stimulus headlines move AUD almost as much as domestic data.

High Impact

Commodity Prices (Iron Ore, Coal, LNG):

Australia's terms of trade are dominated by resource exports, so swings in iron ore and other bulk commodity prices feed directly into AUD demand.

High Impact

Risk Sentiment (Risk-On/Off):

AUD trades as a high-beta "risk barometer" currency — it tends to rally in risk-on regimes and sell off hard in risk-off shocks.

High Impact

Key Correlations

Approximate rolling correlation with related markets, used for confluence checks.

NZD/USD:

Shared status as commodity-linked, risk-sensitive Antipodean currencies keeps these two pairs tightly correlated.

Strong Positive

Iron Ore / Copper Prices:

As Australia's largest export earners, industrial metal prices tend to lead AUD moves by tracking underlying Chinese demand.

Strong Positive

US Dollar Index (DXY):

Broad dollar strength/weakness moves inversely to AUD/USD, as with most G10 pairs against DXY.

Strong Negative

Chinese Equities (CSI 300 / Shanghai Composite):

Chinese stimulus optimism or growth scares tend to show up in AUD before they fully reprice broader risk assets.

Moderate Positive

S&P 500 / Global Risk Assets:

As a high-beta risk currency, AUD tends to amplify moves in global equity sentiment more than most G10 peers.

Moderate Positive

Gold (XAU/USD):

Australia is a major gold producer and both assets benefit from a weaker dollar, giving a loose positive link.

Moderate Positive

Key Economic Events to Watch

Scheduled releases with the highest historical impact on AUD/USD volatility.

Fed Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference:

FOMC rate decisions and Powell's forward guidance are typically the single biggest volatility events for the pair.

High

RBA Interest Rate Decision & Statement:

The RBA's rate decision and accompanying statement on the inflation/growth outlook drive sharp intraday repricing of the aussie leg.

High

China Trade Balance, PMI & GDP:

As Australia's dominant trading partner, Chinese data surprises routinely move AUD more than local releases of similar magnitude.

High

Australia CPI (Quarterly & Monthly Indicator):

The quarterly print carries the most weight for RBA policy given Australia's data-dependent, less frequent inflation reporting cycle.

High

US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP):

Monthly US jobs data shifts Fed rate-cut/hike expectations and routinely produces the largest single-day ranges of the month.

High

US CPI (Inflation):

Core and headline US inflation readings directly reprice Fed rate-cut timing.

High

Australia Employment Change:

Monthly jobs data is a key input into the RBA's view of labor-market slack and wage pressure.

Medium

US ISM Manufacturing/Services PMI:

Leading indicator of US economic momentum that feeds into growth and rate expectations.

Medium

Positioning & Seasonality

Structural and calendar-based tendencies that add context to daily price action.

CFTC Net Speculative Positioning:

Extreme long or short positioning by large speculators often precedes short-covering reversals.

Weekly (COT)

Chinese New Year Demand Lull:

Chinese factories and ports slow around the holiday, temporarily softening industrial commodity demand and often AUD alongside it.

Seasonal (Jan–Feb)

Month-End / Quarter-End Rebalancing:

Large real-money flows tied to index and portfolio rebalancing can distort the last trading hours of the month.

Recurring

Sydney/Tokyo Overlap:

As AUD's home session, Sydney sets the initial daily range, and the Tokyo overlap often adds fresh volume around China-linked headlines.

00:00–02:00 GMT

Key Resources

Trusted sources to verify data and track releases in real time.

Economic Calendar: Investing.com

RBA Rate Decisions: RBA.gov.au

Fed / FOMC Decisions: FederalReserve.gov

Australia ABS Economic Data: ABS.gov.au

China NBS Data Releases: Stats.gov.cn

CFTC COT Reports: CFTC.gov

DXY / Dollar Index Chart: TradingView.com

Session Times (GMT)

Standard session windows — shift by an hour during UK/US daylight-saving mismatches.

Sydney Session:

AUD's home session — RBA headlines and domestic data releases land here and set the day's opening tone.

21:00–06:00

Tokyo Session:

China-linked data and regional risk flows often add a second wave of volume here on top of the Sydney open.

00:00–09:00

London Session:

European risk-appetite flows can extend or fade the Asian session's move ahead of the US open.

08:00–17:00

New York Session:

Where most US data releases land — combined with London overlap this window carries the day's highest volatility.

13:00–22:00

London/NY Overlap:

Peak overall liquidity window — the tightest spreads and largest average ranges occur here.

13:00–17:00

Fundamentals Notes

DXY

DXY Analysis

Live

Current Price: 1.13699 | Daily Range: 1.13649 - 1.14012

Last updated: 2026.07.24 23:59:04

Trend Status:

Daily: — 1H: — Intra-Day: — COT: —

Price Movement:

Volatility: — ADR: — Streak: — Open-Close: —

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Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions about how these supply & demand zones are built and how to use them across major pairs.

Understanding the Analysis

What are supply and demand zones?

Supply and demand zones are price areas where large institutional orders previously entered the market, causing a strong, imbalanced move away from that level. Price often returns to these zones before reacting again, making them high-probability areas to watch for reversals or continuations.

How often are these levels updated?

Zones are recalculated and published daily at 9:00 AM GMT, ahead of the London session open, so you're working with fresh structure before the day's main liquidity arrives.

Where does the BUY/SELL pressure data come from?

It's sourced directly from OANDA's real-time order book and position book tool — the same institutional-grade data feed shown in the charts on this page, not a simulated or retail-only indicator.

Are these zones guaranteed to hold?

No zone holds 100% of the time. These are high-probability areas based on market structure, not guarantees. They're best used alongside confirmation signals, proper risk management, and your own trading plan.

What's the difference between the free zones and the course's enhanced analysis?

The free daily zones give you the key levels for each pair. The full course adds confluence factors, entry/exit criteria, risk models, and live-style breakdowns of why each zone was drawn where it was — the reasoning behind the marks, not just the marks themselves.

Major Currency Pairs

Why focus on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD?

These four pairs carry the deepest liquidity and highest daily trading volume in forex, which means cleaner structure, tighter spreads, and supply/demand zones that are more reliable than in thinly-traded pairs.

What session should I watch for EUR/USD and GBP/USD zones?

Both pairs are most active during the London session and the London/New York overlap, when volume is highest and zones are most likely to be tested with conviction.

Does USD/JPY behave differently from the other majors?

Yes. USD/JPY is heavily influenced by risk sentiment, the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, and the Tokyo session, so zones can react more sharply around macro news and Bank of Japan commentary.

Why does AUD/USD move differently to the other majors?

AUD/USD is a commodity-linked currency pair, so it's more sensitive to risk appetite, Chinese economic data, and commodity prices than the other three majors, which can shift how cleanly its zones respect structure.

Should I trade all four pairs at once, or focus on one?

Most traders get better results specializing in one or two pairs and learning their specific rhythm, rather than spreading focus across all four. Use the jump links above to study one pair's zones in depth before moving to the next.

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